Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 43.176149 50.860146 59.248486 69.051347 80.156963 92.311614 106.583125
2025-01-05 31.156721 41.242560 53.297620 68.618271 87.407662 109.529529 137.359322
2025-01-12 26.224905 37.863169 52.726054 72.771536 98.733903 130.832120 173.074248
2025-01-19 19.990768 31.375020 46.853412 68.905709 98.907499 137.636370 190.637228
2025-01-26 17.336065 29.153307 46.062159 71.229588 106.812644 154.296467 221.232042
2025-02-02 15.883438 28.359617 47.009932 75.810740 117.850129 175.492306 258.715331
2025-02-09 14.085989 26.702341 46.395499 77.915143 125.350696 192.084105 290.618274
2025-02-16 12.419307 24.963683 45.380728 79.192186 131.558701 207.007776 320.733636
2025-02-23 10.759668 22.953789 43.651564 79.102672 135.568253 218.818271 346.804434
2025-03-02 9.111038 20.680268 41.184596 77.525009 137.052578 226.841227 367.581019
2025-03-09 7.913494 19.045905 39.588122 77.157700 140.285621 237.477151 392.476653
2025-03-16 6.390991 16.489456 36.025583 73.074070 137.158398 238.129963 402.301238
2025-03-23 5.749715 15.766473 35.952260 75.431954 145.406540 257.800156 443.482722
2025-03-30 4.846195 14.301314 34.303258 74.862013 148.804181 270.216012 474.469036
2025-04-06 4.557852 14.200634 35.335077 79.317859 161.125492 297.554071 530.002545
2025-04-13 3.574665 12.155138 32.048982 75.165307 157.882170 299.143138 544.512090
2025-04-20 3.248557 11.731586 32.163462 77.661697 166.746952 321.261903 593.029986
2025-04-27 3.119271 11.822840 33.430058 82.580045 180.356002 351.991655 656.791730
2025-05-04 2.831159 11.386812 33.421064 84.838112 189.075351 374.667648 708.006965
2025-05-11 2.526060 10.820377 33.019410 86.208043 196.147613 394.742955 755.555654
2025-05-18 2.186377 10.047163 31.995004 86.112026 200.326358 409.851829 795.191253
2025-05-25 1.825208 9.084855 30.336195 84.419547 201.188129 419.008011 824.892948
2025-06-01 1.567847 8.404945 29.303327 84.025447 204.592772 432.847930 863.117004